Ki Young Ju: Bitcoin ETF Flows Near Zero Yet BTC Down Only 7%

One of the most striking puzzles in the crypto market this year is also one of the simplest to state: the engine that powered Bitcoin’s institutional era has barely run in 2026, yet Bitcoin has not collapsed. Bitcoin ETF flows sit near zero on a year-to-date basis, according to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, yet Bitcoin trades down only about 7 percent, at $80,813.82 in the data he cited on October 28. That resilience, in his view, carries an important implication. If prices can hold up with almost no net new money coming through exchange-traded funds, then the heavy selling that defined much of the year may already be largely exhausted, because those who wanted to sell have likely already sold. It is a cautiously optimistic argument, and it arrives at a moment when many traders are still braced for another leg lower.

Ki Young Ju is a closely followed voice in on-chain analysis as the founder of CryptoQuant, a firm that tracks wallet movements, exchange balances, and fund flows to gauge who is buying and selling Bitcoin. His latest comments, reported on October 28 and 29, do not claim that a new bull market has already begun. They make a narrower, more testable claim: that the absence of a large fall despite weak ETF demand suggests the supply overhang from early sellers is thinning. That distinction matters, because it separates a bottoming process, in which selling pressure fades and prices stabilise, from a confirmed recovery, in which fresh demand returns and prices rise sustainably. Ki Young Ju argues the first part of that sequence may already be in place, while the second part depends on events still to come, notably the fading of uncertainty around the United States midterm elections on November 3 and a return of ETF inflows.

What Near-Zero Bitcoin ETF Flows Actually Mean

To understand the claim, it helps to be precise about what Bitcoin ETF flows measure. United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through brokerage accounts, without holding the coins themselves, and the funds buy or sell Bitcoin to match investor subscriptions and redemptions. Net flows are the difference between money entering and leaving those funds over a period. When net flows are near zero year-to-date, it means that, in aggregate, the amount of new money entering the funds in 2026 roughly equals the amount leaving them, so the funds as a group have not been a net buyer of Bitcoin this year, despite individual days and weeks of strong inflows and outflows.

That flat total hides a volatile journey. Earlier in October, for example, spot Bitcoin funds recorded $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22 and another $137.9 million on October 23, followed by $110.3 million in net inflows on October 26 and about $176 million on October 27, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust with about $151.5 million and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund with about $24.5 million. Over the two days of October 26 and 27, funds attracted about $286.3 million, cutting October’s net outflows to about $26 million in one tracker. Separate CryptoQuant research reported on October 21 had put year-to-date net inflows at about 2,300 BTC after an early-year reversal, a small positive figure that is consistent with the near-zero description when expressed in dollar terms after price moves. The point is not that ETF investors have abandoned Bitcoin entirely, but that they have not, on balance, added significant new demand in 2026, and Bitcoin has still avoided a much larger fall.

Why Holding Up Without ETF Demand Matters

In a typical institutional cycle, weak ETF demand would be expected to coincide with a weaker price, because ETFs have become one of the largest channels through which new capital reaches Bitcoin. When that channel goes quiet, prices usually need support from elsewhere, such as direct buyers, corporate treasuries, long-term holders who refuse to sell, or simply a lack of sellers. Ki Young Ju’s argument leans on that logic in reverse: if Bitcoin is down only 7 percent while its most visible institutional channel is flat, then the sellers who drove earlier declines may have already done most of their selling. In his framing, reported by PANews and Cointime on October 29, a massive sell-off by so-called OG whales, meaning early holders with large, long-held positions, or by miners, seems unlikely now, precisely because those groups have had months to sell and prices have not broken down further.

That reasoning connects to earlier comments from Ki Young Ju in October, when he said Bitcoin’s bear cycle was over in the sense that the odds of breaking the previous low near $58,000 were significantly low. Bitcoin’s 2026 low was about $57,750 on July 1, and by mid-October it was trading near $83,200, having held about $81,500 for a second time in a week, a level where United States ETF buyers on aggregate broke even according to Glassnode data cited in that coverage. He pointed to on-chain profit-and-loss data showing that sellers were exhausted, that early whales had mostly stopped selling, and that new money kept arriving through realised capitalisation, a measure that values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain and rises when coins change hands at higher prices. He expected 12 to 24 months of gains or sideways trading, rather than a straight line higher, a forecast that allows for long periods of consolidation even if the worst selling is over.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A Mixed But Stabilising Chart

The Bitcoin technical analysis accompanying Ki Young Ju’s comments paints a picture that is neither clearly bullish nor clearly bearish, which fits the broader theme of stabilisation without confirmation. In the data cited on October 28, Bitcoin traded at $80,813.82, inside its Bollinger Bands, with upper resistance at $81,406.07 and lower support at $79,471.29. Bollinger Bands are volatility bands plotted around a moving average, and trading inside them, near the middle, suggests the market is not in an extreme overbought or oversold state. The structure was described as remaining bearish in the short term because price held below the 50-day exponential moving average at $81,068.54 and the 200-day exponential moving average at $81,715.94. Exponential moving averages give more weight to recent prices, and trading below both is often read as a downtrend on those timeframes, because the average price over recent weeks and months sits above the current price.

Two other indicators pointed in a more constructive direction. The MACD, or moving average convergence divergence, showed a golden cross at negative 30.38, a signal that shorter-term momentum was turning up relative to longer-term momentum even though the absolute reading remained below zero, which analysts described as building bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, stood at 50.88, essentially neutral, neither overbought above 70 nor oversold below 30, which suggests the market is not stretched in either direction. Taken together, the Bitcoin technical analysis suggests a market caught between a bearish moving-average structure and improving momentum, a combination that often appears near turning points, when trend indicators lag but momentum begins to shift first. It is not a guarantee of a rally, but it is consistent with Ki Young Ju’s view that selling pressure is fading rather than accelerating.

OG Whales, Miners and the Selling Exhaustion Thesis

The idea that OG whales and miners may be done selling deserves careful examination, because it rests on behaviour that can be tracked but not proven in real time. OG whales are early adopters who accumulated Bitcoin when prices were far lower, so even after a large fall from the $126,080 all-time high of October 6, 2025, many still hold substantial paper profits and could sell at any time. Miners, who earn newly issued Bitcoin as rewards for securing the network, must regularly sell some coins to cover electricity and hardware costs, so they are structural sellers by necessity. The exhaustion thesis does not claim these groups will never sell again; it claims that the discretionary, large-scale selling that characterised earlier phases of the decline has largely run its course, because holders who were motivated to exit by fear, by portfolio changes, or by a change in market view have already acted.

Evidence for that view comes from several directions beyond ETF flows. On-chain data reported in mid-October showed that sellers were exhausted on profit-and-loss measures, that early whales had mostly stopped selling, and that a high proportion of supply had remained unmoved for at least a year, about 63.34 percent as of October 27 in one market snapshot, which suggests a core of holders is not trading actively. Whale wallets tracked by CryptoQuant research in mid-October held about 3.03 million BTC, the most since November 2025, indicating that some large holders were accumulating even while ETF flows were flat. Those signals do not all point the same way every day, as the October 28 report of whales cutting 8,162 BTC in 24 hours shows, but over weeks and months they suggest a market where the marginal seller is becoming scarcer. If that is correct, even modest new demand could have an outsized effect on price, because there would be fewer coins offered for sale to absorb it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are Bitcoin ETF flows year-to-date in 2026?

According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin ETF flows are near zero year-to-date, meaning net money entering United States spot Bitcoin funds in 2026 roughly equals money leaving them, even after $110.3 million on October 26 and about $176 million on October 27.

Why does Ki Young Ju think OG whales and miners are done selling?

He argues that with ETF demand weak and Bitcoin down only about 7 percent at $80,813.82, a massive sell-off by OG whales or miners seems unlikely, because those who wanted to sell have likely already sold and prices have held up regardless.

What does the Bitcoin technical analysis show?

Price sits inside Bollinger Bands between $79,471.29 support and $81,406.07 resistance, below the EMA50 at $81,068.54 and EMA200 at $81,715.94, with a MACD golden cross at negative 30.38 signalling building momentum and RSI at 50.88 neutral.

Source: Blockchain.News

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