Ethereum Heads for Worst October Since 2018 as Old Whales Wake Up

Ethereum is closing October on a difficult note, and the numbers now place this month among the weakest Octobers the asset has recorded in recent years. With a decline of 13.6% in October so far, Ethereum is on course for its weakest October since 2018, when the monthly drop reached 15.5%. That comparison matters because October has often been treated by traders as a relatively constructive month for crypto assets, and a move of this size therefore stands out even in a market known for sharp swings.

At the time of reporting, Ethereum traded at $2,328.57, down 0.95% in the previous 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data cited in the report. The daily move on its own was modest, but it came inside a broader monthly slide that has steadily eroded confidence through October. For holders who entered the month expecting seasonal strength, the steady drift lower has been a reminder that past patterns offer no guarantee, and that sentiment can change quickly when large holders and fund flows move in the same direction.

History adds useful context to the current decline. Ethereum closed 7 of the previous 11 Octobers higher, according to CryptoRank data, which helps explain why many market watchers had looked for a firmer month. At the same time, the record for November is more mixed: Ethereum fell in 6 of 11 Novembers, with a median November loss of 5.18%. That history does not predict what will happen next, but it does temper any assumption that a weak October must automatically be followed by a strong November. It also frames the question traders are now asking: whether October represents a temporary setback inside a longer recovery, or the start of a deeper phase of caution.

A monthly decline that echoes 2018

The comparison with 2018 is striking because that year marked a deep and prolonged downturn for the wider crypto market. A monthly fall of 15.5% in October 2018 came during a period when enthusiasm from the previous cycle had faded, prices were searching for a floor, and many participants were reassessing risk. The present decline of 13.6% has not yet matched that figure, but it is close enough for the comparison to carry weight, especially with only a short period of the month remaining at the time of the report.

What makes the parallel worth noting is not simply the size of the fall, but the way it has developed. Rather than a single dramatic crash, October has brought persistent pressure, with sellers appearing repeatedly and buyers struggling to hold key levels. That kind of grinding decline can be harder for holders to navigate than a sharp but brief drop, because it wears down conviction over time and leaves fewer clear moments when sentiment appears to turn. It also tends to draw attention to flows and on-chain behaviour, as traders look for clues about whether selling is exhausted or still building.

ETF outflows add sustained selling pressure

One of the clearest drivers of October weakness has been the behaviour of United States spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds. These funds shed approximately $1.35 billion in October through October 28, according to SoSoValue data, with outflows recorded on 17 of 20 trading days. That pattern is significant because it shows selling was not confined to a single session or a single fund, but was spread across much of the month.

The scale of the outflow also places October in historical context. It was the second-largest monthly outflow on record for these funds, behind only November 2025, when outflows reached $1.42 billion. With two trading days remaining at the point of measurement, October was only about $78 million short of that record. In other words, the month came close to setting a new record for withdrawals, which underlines how consistently investors chose to reduce exposure during October.

The heaviest single day came on October 6, when $201.89 million left the funds. Large single-day outflows can matter because they often coincide with broader market stress, forced repositioning or a shift in short-term sentiment. When they are followed by further outflows on most subsequent trading days, as happened in October, the effect can compound, leaving the market with less support at prices where buyers might otherwise have stepped in.

Other data in the report pointed in the same direction, even though the totals differed slightly by measurement date and method. Through October 21, another dataset put October outflows at about $1.08 billion, described as the sharpest monthly outflow of 2026, with net assets of about $15 billion as of October 20, equal to roughly 5% of Ethereum’s market value. The difference between the two totals reflects different cut-off dates and data approaches, but the underlying message is consistent: October brought unusually heavy and persistent withdrawals from spot Ethereum funds.

Dormant whales return to the market

Alongside fund flows, on-chain activity has drawn attention because several long-idle wallets became active during October. Between October 5 and October 29, ten or more large transfers from long-idle wallets moved approximately 56,000 ETH, worth more than $140 million, according to the report. Four of the five largest transfers went straight to Coinbase or Kraken, two of the largest centralised exchanges. Transfers to exchanges do not by themselves prove an intention to sell, but traders often watch them closely because exchange deposits make coins available for sale, and large deposits from dormant holders can signal that long-term owners are reassessing their positions.

The latest example came on October 29, when a wallet that had been idle for three years sent its full balance of 2,119 ETH to Coinbase, according to Lookonchain. A move of that kind attracts attention precisely because the wallet had shown no activity for such a long period. When a holder who has sat through years of price swings suddenly moves an entire balance, market participants tend to ask what has changed in that holder’s view, even though the motive behind any single transfer cannot be known from blockchain data alone.

What analysts are watching next

Analyst commentary cited in the report points to a market still searching for a clear turning point. Analyst Ted Pillows expects one more drop, while identifying a reclaim of $2,400 as the first major sign of strength. That framing separates two ideas that traders often confuse: a bounce is not the same as a recovery, and a single strong day does not necessarily change the broader trend. In this view, $2,400 matters because holding above it would suggest buyers have regained enough control to challenge the recent pattern of lower prices.

Another analyst outlook, from More Crypto Online, expects another leg down while Ethereum remains below $2,522, with a break under $2,295 described as a first sign of further weakness. Support was placed in a broad range of $2,207 to $1,725. Those levels should be treated as analyst views, not as facts or guarantees. Price levels can act as reference points for traders, but markets frequently move through them, pause near them or reverse without warning, and no level can be relied upon on its own.

Why this October matters beyond the price chart

The significance of a weak October extends beyond a single monthly return. Ethereum’s price performance influences sentiment across decentralised finance, non-fungible tokens, layer-two networks and the wider altcoin market, because Ethereum remains a central asset in much of that ecosystem. When Ethereum falls steadily, it can reduce risk appetite elsewhere, tighten liquidity in lending markets and make participants more cautious about new positions. Conversely, a stabilisation in Ethereum often helps confidence return across related markets.

Implications and risks for holders

For existing holders, the main implication of October is that risk management matters more when trends are weak. A steady decline can tempt holders either to sell in panic near a low or to add aggressively in the hope of catching a bottom, and both reactions carry risks. Selling after a large fall locks in losses and can mean missing a recovery, while adding too early can increase exposure if prices fall further. A measured approach, based on personal time horizon and risk tolerance rather than daily headlines, is generally more sustainable than reacting to each new flow or whale alert.

There are also broader risks to consider. Persistent ETF outflows, if they continue into November, could keep pressure on prices and sentiment. Further dormant whale transfers could add to supply on exchanges. Macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments and performance in Bitcoin and other large assets can all influence Ethereum, sometimes more than Ethereum-specific news. At the same time, a reversal in any of these factors — a return to ETF inflows, a pause in whale selling, or broader market stabilisation — could change the tone quickly. Crypto markets have a history of sharp reversals, and that two-sided risk is part of why October’s story remains open.

What does a 13.6% October fall mean for Ethereum?

A 13.6% fall means Ethereum is on course for its weakest October since 2018, when the decline reached 15.5%, and it places this month well below the pattern in which 7 of the previous 11 Octobers closed higher.

Why are Ethereum ETF outflows important?

ETF outflows matter because United States spot Ethereum funds shed about $1.35 billion through October 28, with outflows on 17 of 20 trading days, making October the second-largest monthly outflow on record and signalling sustained investor caution.

Do transfers by dormant whales mean they are selling?

Not necessarily, because a transfer to an exchange makes coins available for sale but does not prove a sale, and holders may move coins for custody, security or restructuring, although traders watch such moves closely when several large idle wallets act together.

Could November be weak as well?

It could be, because Ethereum fell in 6 of 11 previous Novembers with a median loss of 5.18%, but that history is only a guide, not a forecast, and future performance will depend on fund flows, whale behaviour and broader market conditions.

Source: Mitrade

Related reading on MM Crypto Analysis Web

• EIP-8450 Proposes a Simpler Path to Post-Quantum Ethereum
• Ethereum Clients Patch Flaw That Could Redirect Staking Rewards
• Ethereum Staking Explained: How ETH Staking Works

More in Ethereum on MM Crypto Analysis Web.