Bitcoin Tests $80,400 Trendline as Whales Dump 45,074 BTC in Eight Days

October 26, 2026 MM Crypto Team

Bitcoin’s $80,400 Trendline Is the Line That Matters Now

Bitcoin is testing a rising trendline at $80,400, and the test could hardly be more important. The level is not a flat line drawn across a chart: it is a rising trendline, which means its exact price moves higher over time, and the defence of it must happen now rather than later. Every day that passes without a decisive hold pushes the line upward and makes the task of defending it harder, which is why traders are watching the current price action with unusual intensity. The line marks the boundary between a market still building upward momentum and one that has slipped into a weaker structure. As long as Bitcoin trades above it, the broader uptrend remains intact in technical terms. A daily close below it would shift the conversation from consolidation to correction. October is drawing toward its close, the Federal Reserve decision is days away, and the market has already shown signs of strain. The $80,400 trendline is where buyers must prove the recent pullback is a pause rather than the start of something deeper.

What a Rising Trendline Really Means

A rising trendline is drawn by connecting the lows of successive price swings, and it slopes upward because each low sits higher than the one before it. That pattern tells a simple story: buyers have been willing to step in at progressively higher prices, absorbing selling pressure before it can push the market lower. The line therefore acts as a moving floor, rising alongside the price and giving the market a structure to lean on during pullbacks. When the price approaches the line from above, traders expect buyers to defend it, because the line has held before and defending it preserves the pattern. But the defence is not automatic: the line only holds if real buying arrives. A rising trendline also carries a built-in urgency that a flat support level does not: because the line moves higher each day, a market that drifts sideways is effectively drifting closer to the line, and the window for a successful defence narrows with every session. That is the situation Bitcoin now faces. The price has come down to meet a line that keeps climbing, and the market must either bounce from it soon or accept that the structure has broken. For readers new to technical analysis, the key point is simple: a rising trendline tests whether buyers still believe in the trend, and the test is graded daily.

Whales Sold 45,074 Bitcoin in Eight Days

While Bitcoin tests its trendline, the largest holders in the market have been selling. Data from Santiment shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin dumped 45,074 coins over an eight-day period, a wave of distribution from the cohort that traders call whales. That number matters because of who these holders are and what their selling represents. Wallets in this size range include some of the wealthiest individual holders, funds, and long-term accumulators in the market, and their behaviour is watched closely as a signal of how the smartest or best-capitalised money is positioned. When whales sell in size, it does not automatically mean the market will fall, but it does mean that a large volume of supply has entered the market and must be absorbed by buyers before prices can rise. The eight-day window matters: this was sustained distribution, not a single day of panic selling. What is clear is that the selling coincided with Bitcoin’s drift down toward its trendline, and the two forces are connected. Buyers defending the $80,400 line are doing so against a backdrop of heavy supply from large holders, and that makes the defence harder. If the selling slows and the line holds, the market can stabilise; if the selling continues, the line will face its sternest test yet.

Hut 8 Sends $130 Million of Bitcoin to Exchanges

The whale selling has a corporate face as well. Hut 8, one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners, moved 1,589 Bitcoin worth $130 million to exchanges, a transfer that represents 15 percent of its $845.6 million treasury. Miner-to-exchange flows are among the most closely watched signals in the crypto market, because they carry a clear implication: Bitcoin that sits in a miner’s treasury is supply held off the market, while Bitcoin that moves to an exchange is supply that can be sold. A transfer is not the same as a sale, and miners move coins for legitimate reasons such as covering operating costs, but the size of this particular move makes it impossible to ignore. At a moment when the market is already absorbing tens of thousands of coins from whale wallets, an additional $130 million of potential supply from a major miner adds to the pressure on buyers. The move also raises questions about miner sentiment: mining companies tend to hold their Bitcoin when they expect higher prices and sell when they need cash or judge the outlook less favourable. A transfer of this scale suggests at least a willingness to realise value at current levels rather than wait for a recovery. For traders, the practical lesson is that exchange inflows from miners are a leading indicator of selling pressure, and this one arrived at precisely the moment when Bitcoin could least afford it.

A $186.7 Million Leveraged Bet on Hyperliquid

Not everyone is selling. While whales distributed and a major miner moved coins to exchanges, one address on the Hyperliquid platform was holding $186.7 million in maximum-leverage long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with Bitcoin trading at $80,106 and Ethereum at $2,330.84 at the time the position was observed. The contrast could hardly be sharper: on one side of the market, large holders are reducing exposure, while on the other, a single trader is betting an enormous sum that prices will rise, using the highest leverage available. Maximum leverage means the position is extremely sensitive to small price moves, and a modest decline can trigger liquidation, the forced closure of the position at a loss. Such positions add a layer of fragility to the market around key levels. If Bitcoin holds its trendline and bounces, the leveraged long stands to profit handsomely. But if the trendline breaks, the liquidation of a position of this size could add further selling pressure at the worst possible moment. The bet shows that despite the whale selling and miner transfers, some traders are still willing to stake huge sums on a recovery. Whether that confidence is justified will be decided at the $80,400 line.

October Seasonality: The 2018 Warning and the 2023 Contrast

Historical October data shows that years in which Bitcoin entered the second half of October in negative territory did not always recover. The clearest warning comes from 2018, when Bitcoin was down 4.7 percent at mid-month and went on to close October deeply negative, a reminder that a weak middle of the month can become a weak end of the month. The year 2026 is tracking that trajectory rather than the more encouraging precedents. The contrast with 2023 is stark: that year Bitcoin closed October up 27.9 percent for the full month. The average October gain across the period from 2013 to 2025 stands at 19.2 percent, a figure that reflects how often the month has been kind to Bitcoin holders. But averages conceal as much as they reveal, and the 2018 example shows the month can also end badly when momentum turns against the market. Seasonality is not destiny, but traders ignore it at their peril. The bullish scenario is clear: if the $80,400 trendline holds on a daily closing basis, the setup mirrors historical post-mid-October recoveries, when the market found its footing late in the month and pushed higher. That outcome remains possible, but the 2018 precedent is a reminder that hope is not a strategy.

What a Hold Means, and What a Break Means

The week ahead will resolve the question one way or the other. If the $80,400 trendline holds on a daily closing basis, the technical structure remains intact and the setup mirrors historical post-mid-October recoveries, when Bitcoin stabilised late in the month and rebuilt momentum. A hold would also suggest the whale distribution and miner transfers have been absorbed, a sign of underlying demand, and it would leave the leveraged longs on the right side of the trade. If the line breaks, the implications are the mirror image: the rising structure gives way, the whale selling is validated, and the leveraged long faces liquidation risk that could accelerate the decline. A break would also put the 2018 comparison firmly in play, with the market facing the prospect of closing October deeply negative. For most investors, the most useful approach is to watch the daily close rather than intraday wiggles, because a brief dip below the line that recovers by the close is very different from a close below it. The trendline is rising, the sellers are active, and the seasonal backdrop is unfavourable, but the defence has not failed yet. The next few daily closes will tell the market which way this October ends.

FAQ

What is Bitcoin’s $80,400 trendline? It is a rising trendline connecting a series of higher lows, and because the line slopes upward, its exact price moves higher over time, so the defence of it must happen now.

How much Bitcoin did whales sell? Santiment data shows wallets holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin dumped 45,074 coins over an eight-day period.

What did Hut 8 do? Hut 8 moved 1,589 Bitcoin worth $130 million to exchanges, which represents 15 percent of its $845.6 million treasury.

What does October history say? In 2018 Bitcoin was down 4.7 percent at mid-month and closed October deeply negative, while 2023 closed the month up 27.9 percent and the 2013 to 2025 average October gain is 19.2 percent.

What happens if the trendline holds? If the $80,400 trendline holds on a daily closing basis, the setup mirrors historical post-mid-October recoveries, when the market stabilised late in the month and pushed higher.

Source: BitRss

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