Australia’s ASIC Says No Prediction Market Operator Has Applied for a Licence

October 30, 2026 MM Crypto Team

No prediction market operator has applied for a licence in Australia, and any applicant would face high approval thresholds, the chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), Sarah Court, said on October 29, 2026, according to CoinGabbar. The statement draws a clear line under Australia’s position at a moment when prediction markets are growing rapidly elsewhere, and it signals that any operator hoping to serve Australian users through a locally licensed route will have to clear a demanding bar.

Prediction markets are platforms where users trade on the outcomes of future events — elections, sporting results, economic announcements, award winners, and much more. Instead of placing a simple bet, users buy and sell contracts whose prices reflect the market’s collective judgement about how likely an outcome is. If an event is considered 70 percent likely, the corresponding contract tends to trade near 70 cents on the dollar, and the price moves as new information arrives. Supporters argue that this mechanism aggregates information more efficiently than polls or punditry, because participants put money behind their views. Critics argue that the same mechanism can look very much like gambling, or like an unregulated financial market, depending on how it is structured and who is allowed to participate.

That definitional question is at the heart of the regulatory debate worldwide. Are prediction markets financial products, gambling products, or something new that does not fit neatly into either box? The answer determines which regulator is in charge, what rules apply, and what protections users receive. In Australia, ASIC’s statement suggests the regulator is not rushing to answer that question by handing out licences. By noting that no operator has even applied, and that thresholds would be high, Chair Sarah Court has effectively told the industry that a licensed Australian prediction market is not imminent, and that any future application will be scrutinised closely.

Why licensing thresholds matter so much

A licence is not just a piece of paper. It is the gateway to operating legally in a regulated market, and the conditions attached to it shape how a business must behave every day. High approval thresholds typically mean an applicant must demonstrate strong financial resources, robust governance, competent management, adequate risk controls, and systems for protecting customers and handling complaints. The regulator may also examine the product itself: how contracts are priced, how markets are settled, how conflicts of interest are managed, and whether the platform could be used for market manipulation or insider trading.

For prediction markets, those questions are particularly sharp. A market on an election outcome, for example, raises concerns that go beyond ordinary consumer protection. Could well-funded participants manipulate the price to create a misleading impression of public opinion? Could people with inside knowledge trade on information the public does not have? Could the market itself influence the event it is supposed to predict, for example by shaping media coverage or campaign strategy? Regulators thinking about licensing must weigh all of these risks, and high thresholds are a way of saying that only operators who can answer them convincingly will be allowed through the door.

High thresholds also matter for competition. If the bar is set very high, smaller or newer operators may find it too costly or complex to apply, leaving the field to larger, better-resourced firms — or to no licensed operator at all, which is the current position in Australia. The alternative — a low bar that lets many operators in quickly — risks a wave of failures or scandals that damage public trust in the whole sector.

For Australian users, the immediate implication is straightforward: there is currently no locally licensed prediction market operator. That does not necessarily mean Australians cannot access prediction markets at all, since many platforms operate online across borders, but it does mean there is no operator that has been through ASIC’s licensing process and is subject to its ongoing supervision in this specific area. Users should therefore be cautious about assuming that a platform available online carries the same protections as a locally licensed financial service, and should check carefully what rules, if any, govern the platform they are using and what recourse they have if something goes wrong.

How Australia’s stance compares with the debate elsewhere

Prediction markets have grown fast in the United States, where platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have become widely known and where trading volumes have surged. That growth has forced American regulators and lawmakers into an active debate about how these platforms should be classified and supervised, with arguments about whether they belong under financial market rules, gambling rules, or a new framework designed for them. The debate is unresolved in many respects, and different authorities have taken different views at different times, which has created uncertainty even as the markets themselves have expanded.

Australia’s position, as described by ASIC’s chair, is more cautious by comparison. Rather than racing to accommodate a fast-growing industry, the regulator appears to be holding the line: no applications have been received, and the thresholds for approval would be high. That stance does not amount to a ban, and it does not rule out a licensed market in the future. It does, however, suggest that Australia will not be an early mover in licensing prediction markets, and that any operator hoping to change that will need to make a strong case.

What the two debates share is the underlying tension: prediction markets are popular, they generate large volumes of trading, and they produce information that many people find valuable, but they also raise genuine questions about gambling, market integrity, and consumer protection that existing rules were not designed to answer. Every regulator facing this question must decide how much weight to give to innovation and consumer choice on one side, and to protection and integrity on the other. ASIC’s statement places Australia firmly on the careful end of that spectrum for now.

What high thresholds would mean for operators

For an operator considering an Australian licence application, high thresholds translate into a long and expensive process. The applicant would need to prepare detailed submissions, demonstrate compliance systems, and show that its platform can operate safely at scale. It would likely need to address how it prevents manipulation, how it handles the settlement of markets, how it protects client money, and how it meets anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer obligations. It would also need to show that its management team is fit and proper and that its governance arrangements are sound.

Those requirements are not unusual for financial services licensing, but they can be a poor fit for a fast-moving technology startup that is used to launching quickly and iterating in public. An operator that has grown by moving fast in a less regulated environment may find the discipline of a licensing process challenging, and may decide that the Australian market is not worth the cost and delay, at least for now. That may be part of why no operator has applied: the combination of a high bar and a relatively small market, compared with the United States, may not yet justify the investment.

What it means for Australian users and the market’s future

For Australian users interested in prediction markets, the current position means patience and caution. There is no licensed local operator to turn to, and the regulator has signalled that one is unlikely to appear quickly. Users who access offshore platforms should understand that they may not enjoy the protections that come with a locally licensed service, such as access to Australian dispute resolution schemes or the assurance that client money is held under Australian rules. That does not make every offshore platform unsafe, but it does mean users should do their own due diligence and be aware of the risks.

Note the contrast with a separate article on this site yesterday, which covered prediction markets arriving for users in the United States through Kalshi. This article is about something different: Australia’s regulatory stance, as set out by its own securities regulator. In one market, prediction markets are expanding; in another, the regulator is signalling that the door to a licensed local market remains firmly shut for now.

That contrast is likely to persist for some time. Prediction markets sit at the intersection of finance, gambling, and information, and regulators around the world are still working out where they belong. Australia’s answer, for now, is caution: no applications, high thresholds, and no licensed operator. For users, operators, and observers of the sector, that is a clear signal, even if it leaves the longer-term question open.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has any prediction market operator applied for a licence in Australia?

No. ASIC Chair Sarah Court said on October 29, 2026, that no prediction market operator has applied for an Australian licence. The statement was reported by CoinGabbar, and it establishes that there is currently no licensed local operator in this area.

What does it mean that approval thresholds would be high?

High approval thresholds mean an applicant would need to demonstrate strong financial resources, sound governance, competent management, and robust systems for protecting customers, managing risk, and preventing market manipulation. The regulator would examine the product itself, including how contracts are priced and settled, before granting a licence, so only well-prepared operators would be expected to succeed.

Are prediction markets gambling or financial products?

That is the central regulatory question, and different jurisdictions answer it differently. Prediction markets let users trade on event outcomes, which resembles both gambling and financial trading. Regulators worldwide are still deciding whether these platforms are financial products, gambling products, or something new, and the classification determines which rules apply and which regulator is in charge.

What should Australian users know before using a prediction market platform?

Australian users should know that there is currently no locally licensed prediction market operator, so a platform available online may not carry the same protections as a locally licensed financial service. Users should check what rules govern the platform, how client money is handled, and what recourse is available if something goes wrong, and should be cautious about assuming Australian regulatory protections apply.

Source: CoinGabbar

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